Savi Rail Performance Model (SaviRPM)
GA

December and May timetable option appraisal

A case study in partnership with Greater Anglia


“… The exploratory process was very positive … it was not about telling us how to do things but prompting thoughts and further exploration”

Keith Palmer, Head of Performance & Planning, Greater Anglia


The challenge

Greater Anglia has recently introduced new rolling stock to its routes. From May ‘21, the new timetable assumes faster sectional running times for the new stock.

Greater Anglia were concerned that this may result in poorer performance overall compared with the December ‘19 timetable.


What we did

Working with Greater Anglia’s performance team, we created a bespoke full (all operator) May ‘21 timetable. We used the December ‘19 timetable as the baseline, as this had a number of trains cancelled, and removed an equivalent number of services from the May ’21 timetable to ensure comparability.


What we found

The modelling showed that the May ‘21 timetable is as resilient as the December ‘19 timetable.

The May ‘21 timetable should deliver the benefit of faster journey times between London and Norwich, with fewer departure delays due to removing slam door stock and with minimal additional risk of lateness.

The modelling suggests that the May ‘21 timetable might cause longer reactionary delays between some specific locations because services are closer together and more likely to conflict. As some services are still assumed in the new timetable to be running to old stock timings such delays may be recoverable in practice


“I am confident that the information generated is useful and reliable"

Keith Palmer, Head of Performance & Planning, Greater Anglia


How Greater Anglia used this information

The modelling enabled Greater Anglia to plan targeted monitoring and mitigation in the locations where there might be risk of lateness.


Using SaviRPM

Greater Anglia valued the ability to examine results by service group and explore why some service groups were performing worse than others.


The modelled results

  • The May ‘21 timetable is as resilient as the December ‘19 timetable; resulting in an equivalent number of on time station stops
  • …therefore, the May 21 timetable should deliver the benefit of faster journey times but with minimal additional risk of lateness.
Results of performance modelling

To find out more… and see the interactive visualisations in action

contact us: savi@risksol.co.uk