Savi Rail Performance Model (SaviRPM)
Greater Anglia

The role of ‘disruptive’ trains in poor rail performance

A case study in partnership with Greater Anglia

“… the model is doing exactly what it is meant to do… it is making us ask the right questions about the drivers of performance risk”

Marc Ware, Performance Manager, Greater Anglia

The challenge

Grior to COVID-19, only 67% of Greater Anglia’s trains arrived at station stops on time. Could finding the services that cause the most disruption to performance, and removing the delays they cause, materially improve performance?

What we did

Greater Anglia’s performance team working with Risk Solutions used SaviRPM to identify trains that were likely to consistently cause poor performance, by modelling multiple simulations of a typical day’s operation. We identified not only the Greater Anglia services that suffered the most modelled delay, but critically services that caused the most reactionary delay, propagating disruption across the network

We then ‘fixed’ these services to see how much service performance might improve. We chose to model them with immunity to subthreshold and attributed delay (an artificially perfect journey). They remained susceptible to passenger dwell delays, association delays and reactionary delays.

What we found

We found that for Greater Anglia:

“This is giving us the evidence we need … that we have to look beyond attributed delay, and focus on building a more robust timetable and tackling subthreshold delay – and that we have to do this collaboratively

Marc Ware, Performance Manager, Greater Anglia

How Greater Anglia used this information

Instead of spending time and resources atempting to improve individually poor performing services, Greater Anglia’s performance team focussed their attention on finding other ways to improve service performance. The work also spurred on their collaboration with Network Rail and other operators in the region to deal with shared performance pain.

Using SaviRPM

The modelled results

Results of performance modelling

To find out more… and see the interactive visualisations in action

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