Savi Rail Performance Model (SaviRPM)
Network Rail

Timetable performance and capacity risk

A case study in partnership with Network Rail

“… A good and valuable tool for exploring where timetable capacity and performance risk lies”

Richard Raine, Programme Manager (Timetable Performance), Network Rail

The challenge

There is a trade-off inherent at the heart of every timetable: How to deliver increasing service throughput using existing infrastructure (improved capacity), while at the same time not introducing more risk of reactionary delay.

What we did

Network Rail’s team and Risk Solutions used an iterative process of modelling, analysis and discussion, to compare three timetables covering services between Kings Cross and Peterborough for three Wednesdays in December 2019 (which provided our baseline), December 2021, and May 2022.

SaviRPM modelling provided a structured environment within which the performance of these three different timetables could be compared and explored to help identify and resolve timetabling issues.

What we found

We found that:

The project demonstrated the value SaviRPM brings to the process of timetable design particularly the speed with which it delivers results – supporting an iterative timetable development planning process between planners and modellers.

“It’s good to work with a team that develops the modelling with you in a truly collaborative way"

Richard Raine, Programme Manager (Timetable Performance), Network Rail

Using SaviRPM

The modelled results

The performance of each timetable was measured as time to 1 minute, one of the key performance measures used by the rail industry. The timetables were stressed using increasing levels of delay; from no delays (feasibility of a timetable), with subthreshold delays under 3 mins (to test the robustness of a timetable), and with full attributed delays representing delay levels seen in real life (resilience of the timetable).

Results of performance modelling

The differences between the performance of the Dec 2021 and May 22 timetables are not statistically significant, therefore the timetables had similar performance, and performance risk.

To find out more… and see the interactive visualisations in action

contact us: